FORECASTING RAINFALL IN PANGKALPINANG CITY USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE WITH EXOGENOUS (SARIMAX)

Changes in extreme rainfall can cause disasters or losses for the wider community, so information about future is also needed. Rainfall included category of time series data. One methods that be used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA). However, this model only involves one variable without involving its dependence on other variables. factors affect wind speed which formation convective clouds. In study, was expanded by adding eXogen variables and seasonal elements, namely SARIMAX (Seasonal with eXogenous input). Based analysis has been carried out, prediction Pangkalpinang City, Bangka Belitung Islands Province modeled (0,1,3)(0,1,1){12} monthly (0,1,2 )(0,1,3){12} maximum daily rainfall. When compared actual data previous studies using ARIMAX, still better forecasting process when to ARIMAX model. If viewed based AIC value SARIMA model, more suitable predict City.